Russia and Europe in War: Is the Conflict Spreading, and Who Really Benefits?

Russia holds the world's largest nuclear stockpile. On 20 September, Ukraine reportedly launched one of its largest drone attacks on Russian territory. Russia's foreign minister said Russian skies had never seen an attack of this size.

The timing raises questions. Just two weeks earlier, Vladimir Putin described his meeting with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as fruitful. The envoys met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the next day. Diplomacy appears to be moving forward while the war grows wider.

Analyst's view: One analyst argues that the answer lies in Washington, not in Moscow or Kyiv. His claim is that the war and Europe's growing dependence on the US benefit American corporations. This is an opinion, but the reasoning behind it deserves a closer look.

What's Happening Between Europe and Russia?

The war in Ukraine has lasted more than four years. Talks have produced meetings but no lasting ceasefire. The only pause this time was an unofficial 48-hour halt in fighting during the US envoys' visit.

After the envoys left, Russia reportedly launched a large strike on 8 September. A Ukrainian minister said Ukraine's air defenses were too thin, partly because some US systems had been moved to the Middle East for the Iran conflict. Ukraine's drone attack followed on 20 September.

Analyst's view: In his reading, the envoys' meetings were not mainly about ending the war. He argues they were about making the war and the postwar period profitable for Russia and for American companies. He also notes that Putin once dismissed talks with Zelensky because he lacked real power, yet now meets envoys who, in the analyst's words, represent corporate America. This is his interpretation. Neither side has confirmed it.

What Happens If Russia Attacks Europe?

A direct attack on a NATO member could trigger Article 5, the collective defense clause. That would pull the US and European allies into direct conflict with Russia, which is why leaders fear escalation.

Some governments are already preparing their citizens. A Polish resident told the analyst that local police had briefed people on how to prepare if war spreads from Russia.

Analyst's view: He predicted in 2025 that the war would widen into other European countries in 2026. He believes such briefings show Europe is being prepared for a larger conflict. Others may see them as precaution rather than proof of a plan.

What's Happening With the War in Europe?
Energy Crisis and Economic Impact

The Nord Stream pipelines were damaged by explosions in September 2022. Europe lost cheap Russian gas and turned to more expensive US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Higher energy costs forced some German factories to cut output or close.

Analyst's view: He asks a simple question: who benefited? In his argument, US LNG companies gained new customers, and American and Chinese goods replaced products from struggling German factories. He also claims Europe was pushed to stop buying Russian gas partly because of lobbying by corporations. Who caused the explosions remains disputed, and no final proof has been publicly accepted by all sides.

US Troop Withdrawals and Defense Spending

Reports say the Pentagon told European countries in January 2026 to take over their own primary defense. In May 2026 it announced the withdrawal of about 5,000 US troops from Germany over 6 to 12 months. Washington is also pushing Europe to spend more on defense.

Analyst's view: He argues this creates a trap. Europe pays more for weapons, mostly from US firms such as Raytheon and Palantir, while relying less on direct US protection. He points to the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program, announced in 2025, and says Ukraine paid for weapons but then lost air defenses when the US needed them for Iran.

Reconstruction Contracts

Analyst's view: He argues that rebuilding Ukraine is a major business opportunity. He says Witkoff and Kushner act more like fund managers than diplomats, and that Putin is thinking about land and resources. Russia is said to control territory holding about 40% of Ukraine's valuable farmland and mineral resources. A US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund has been discussed publicly, but the analyst's claims about personal business motives are his own opinion.

Rising Costs for Ordinary People

Analyst's view: He says ordinary taxpayers pay 40% or more of income in taxes while prices rise, and that wealthy people move to low-tax places like Dubai. His argument is that the cost of war falls on the public while corporations and the rich gain.

Could Europe Face Internal Unrest?

Analyst's view: He claims some technology and security companies profit when societies feel unsafe, since governments then spend more on surveillance and security contracts. He links this to debates over digital ID cards in the UK. He also says some public figures blame Muslim immigrants for Europe's problems, but he argues this is a convenient scapegoat and distracts from deeper economic causes. These are his views and are not proven. The UK ID card debate is real, but claims about companies wanting unrest have no direct evidence behind them.

Who Is More Powerful, Russia or the EU?
Area Russia European Union
Economy Smaller, resource-dependent Much larger combined economy
Nuclear weapons World's largest stockpile France only (UK is outside the EU)
Military Large and battle-tested Large combined spending, but fragmented
Energy Major gas and oil exporter Heavy importer
Security backing Mostly self-reliant Relies on NATO and the US

The EU is stronger economically, but Russia has more nuclear weapons and a military hardened by war. The analyst argues Europe is weak because both its economy and its security depend on others.

What Does This Mean for Bangladesh?

Bangladesh depends heavily on imports and exports, so a wider war could raise prices and inflation. The analyst also advises students going abroad not to stay in the US or UK as undocumented migrants, and says long-term residents should keep a "Plan B" and diversify. This is personal advice, not a forecast.

FAQ

Is World War 3 possible between Russia and NATO?
Experts see it as unlikely but not impossible. Nuclear risk makes both sides cautious, but escalation by mistake remains a concern.

Will BRICS replace the US dollar?
There is no sign of a quick replacement. The dollar still dominates global trade and reserves.